TL;DR - In August of 2024 I shared an article on STEAM® game publication rates that included predictions. This 2025 sequel is actually a side effect of investigating the use of Generative AI tools in STEAM® games. Look for that in a subsequent post. But first things first.
INTRO
My 2024 hypothesis that the game development industry overproduces games continues to be supported. That article was driven by my assertion that unrestrained investment in a monopolistically competitive market results in failures for both investors and game developers.
In January of 2025 I refined and updated my August 2024 prediction that there would be 100,000 games available on STEAM® by the end of 2024.
August, 2024: STEAM® Offerings in 2024 Will Approach 100,000 Games
January, 2025: STEAM® 2024 By The Numbers
Well, we are are into the back third of 2025 and things are only looking . . . worse? More so? How you feel about it may depend on whether you’re a gamer looking for more choice, or a game developer looking for employment.
BACKSTORY
First, a quick recap of past findings and predictions:
The STEAM® game publication rate has increased every year since 2019.
The STEAM® game publication rate is accelerating.
This is true even for games blessed by STEAM®’s secret-sauce quality algorithm (games not tagged as Profile Features Limited).
In January, 2025, STEAM® was found to have 94,460 games available [after excluding demos masquerading as full games].
If publication rates stayed on this path STEAM® could surpass 200,000 games by the end of 2029 [so, after 5 more years].
AS OF AUGUST, 2025
After blowing the dust off of Pycharm and Data Grip, I can report the following.
The STEAM® game publication rate is growing faster than predicted.
Games are getting evicted from the catalogue: 749 over the past 8 months, and scattered across multiple publication years.
The percentage of STEAM® LIMITED (approved quality) games continues to decline and is headed below 20%.
Thus far in 2025, STEAM® has published 13,927 games (LIMITED and UNLIMITED combined).
Let’s emphasize that number: STEAM® has published more games in the first 8 months of 2025 than in all of 2023.
THE PREDICTION
Here’s the graph you’ve been waiting for.
Keen observers may notice updated numbers reflecting games that were published in that year but which have been removed from the catalogue.
There are two estimates included on the graph: LINEAR and HISTORICAL.
The LINEAR estimator is obtained in the usual manner: fitting a line to the first eight months of the year and then projecting four months out.
In previous studies I used a quadratic fit as a second estimate to capture the annual acceleration in the rate of game publications. However, based on the monthly variations of publication rates, I think I have something better! From 2020 through 2024, the annual fraction of games published in September through December was a very stable 45% and change.
The HISTORICAL estimator therefore uses the average rate of 45.36% to extrapolate those four months.
SUMMARY
The LINEAR estimator predicts over 22,000 games will be published on STEAM® in 2025.
The HISTORICAL estimator predicts over 25,000 games will be published on STEAM® in 2025.
I’m putting my money on the HISTORICAL estimator. Which means STEAM® is headed toward a 200,000 active game catalogue WAY sooner than 2029. We could get there by 2027 if the acceleration we’re seeing continues, and assuming that the eviction rate of games in the catalogue doesn’t blow up.
OUTRO
I turned my attention to other things during most of 2025. Because reasons. But a conversation I had with a person in the industry brought me back to it, at least for a bit. That conversation resulting went something like this:
“There’s a lot controversy among players regarding the use of Generative AI. One game that was otherwise expected to be popular has some strong forum comments. Lots of developers disapprove of those tools, but investors don’t. I wonder how many games are using GenAI tools?”
Well, I said, “I’ve got an app for that.” So stay tuned for some info on generative AI tool use as declared on STEAM® store pages.
And be safe.
RESOURCES
📖 STEAM® Games: Most Popular Months
📖 SteamDB description of Profile Features Limited tag on STEAM® games
📖 STEAM® Offerings in 2024 Will Approach 100,000 Games
📖 Game Development and Market Failures
📖 Game Developer article on anniversary of Steam Greenlight
📖 Wikipedia page on STEAM® Direct
📖 Wikipedia page on STEAM® Greenlight
METHODOLOGY
All data discussed here is for STEAM® applications labeled as a ‘game’ with a publication date between 2003-01-01 and 2025-08-31 and where the ‘coming soon’ flag has a value of false. We also excluded any ‘game’ application with a title containing any of these case insensitive strings: playtest, test, demo, beta, trial.